A meta-analysis of GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for kidney failure.

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline is causally associated with kidney failure and is a candidate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Analyses across a diverse spectrum of interventions and populations is required for acceptance of GFR decline as an endpoint. In an analysis of individual participant data, for each of 66 studies (total of 186,312 participants), we estimated treatment effects on the total GFR slope, computed from baseline to 3 years, and chronic slope, starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical endpoint (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR < 15 ml min-1 per 1.73 m2 or kidney failure with replacement therapy). We used a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression model to relate treatment effects on GFR slope with those on the clinical endpoint across all studies and by disease groups (diabetes, glomerular diseases, CKD or cardiovascular diseases). Treatment effects on the clinical endpoint were strongly associated with treatment effects on total slope (median coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.97 (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 0.82-1.00)) and moderately associated with those on chronic slope (R2 = 0.55 (95% BCI 0.25-0.77)). There was no evidence of heterogeneity across disease. Our results support the use of total slope as a primary endpoint for clinical trials of CKD progression.

Social Determinants of Health and Their Impact on the Black Race Coefficient in Serum Creatinine-Based Estimation of GFR: Secondary Analysis of MDRD and CRIC Studies.

BACKGROUND: The cause for differences in serum creatinine between Black and non-Black individuals incorporated into prior GFR-estimating equations is not understood. We explored whether social determinants of health can account for this difference. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort studies ( N =1628 and 1423, respectively). Data in both study cohorts were stratified by race (Black versus non-Black). We first evaluated the extent to which the coefficient of Black race in estimating GFR from creatinine is explained by correlations of race with social determinants of health and non-GFR determinants of creatinine. Second, we evaluated whether the difference between race groups in adjusted mean creatinine can be explained by social determinants of health and non-GFR determinants of creatinine. RESULTS: In models regressing measured GFR on creatinine, age, sex, and race, the coefficient for Black race was 21% (95% confidence interval, 0.176 to 0.245) in Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and 13% (95% confidence interval, 0.097 to 0.155) in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort and was not attenuated by the addition of social determinants of health, alone or in combination. In both studies, the coefficient for Black race was larger at lower versus higher income levels. In models, regressing creatinine on measured GFR, age, and sex, mean creatinine was higher in Black versus non-Black participants in both studies, with no effect of social determinants of health. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for selected social determinants of health did not influence the relationship between Black race and creatinine-based estimated GFR.

A National Registry for People With All Stages of Kidney Disease: The National Kidney Foundation (NKF) Patient Network.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The National Kidney Foundation (NKF) launched the first national US kidney disease patient registry, the NKF Patient Network, that is open to patients throughout the continuum of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The Network provides individualized education and will facilitate patient-centered research, clinical care, and health policy decisions. Here, we present the overall design and the results of a feasibility study that was conducted July through December 2020. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational cohort study of patient-entered data with or without electronic health care record (EHR) linkage in collaboration with health systems. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: People with CKD, age≥18 years, are invited through their provider, NKF communications, or national outreach campaign. People self-enroll and share their data through a secure portal that offers individualized education and support. The first health system partner is Geisinger. EXPOSURE: Any cause and stage of CKD, including dialysis and kidney transplant recipients. OUTCOME: Feasibility of the EHR data transfer, participants' characteristics, and their perspectives on usability and content. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Data were collected and analyzed through the registry portal powered by the Pulse Infoframe healthie 2.0 platform. RESULTS: During the feasibility study, 80 participants completed their profile, and 42 completed a satisfaction survey. Mean age was 57.5 years, 51% were women, 83% were White, and 89% were non-Hispanic or Latino. Of the participants, 60% were not aware of their level of estimated glomerular filtration rate and 91% of their urinary albumin-creatinine ratio. LIMITATIONS: Challenges for the Network are lack of awareness of kidney disease for many with CKD, difficulty in recruiting vulnerable populations or those with low digital readiness, and loss to follow-up, all leading to selection bias. CONCLUSIONS: The Network is positioned to become a national and international platform for real-world data that can inform the development of patient-centered research, care, and treatments.

Acute Treatment Effects on GFR in Randomized Clinical Trials of Kidney Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND: Acute changes in GFR can occur after initiation of interventions targeting progression of CKD. These acute changes complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects. METHODS: To assess the magnitude and consistency of acute effects in randomized clinical trials and explore factors that might affect them, we performed a meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical trials for CKD progression, enrolling 56,413 participants with at least one estimated GFR measurement by 6 months after randomization. We defined acute treatment effects as the mean difference in GFR slope from baseline to 3 months between randomized groups. We performed univariable and multivariable metaregression to assess the effect of intervention type, disease state, baseline GFR, and albuminuria on the magnitude of acute effects. RESULTS: The mean acute effect across all studies was -0.21 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (95% confidence interval, -0.63 to 0.22) over 3 months, with substantial heterogeneity across interventions (95% coverage interval across studies, -2.50 to +2.08 ml/min per 1.73 m2). We observed negative average acute effects in renin angiotensin system blockade, BP lowering, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor trials, and positive acute effects in trials of immunosuppressive agents. Larger negative acute effects were observed in trials with a higher mean baseline GFR. CONCLUSION: The magnitude and consistency of acute GFR effects vary across different interventions, and are larger at higher baseline GFR. Understanding the nature and magnitude of acute effects can help inform the optimal design of randomized clinical trials evaluating disease progression in CKD.

Association of Treatment Effects on Early Change in Urine Protein and Treatment Effects on GFR Slope in IgA Nephropathy: An Individual Participant Meta-analysis.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: An early change in proteinuria is considered a reasonably likely surrogate end point in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and can be used as a basis for accelerated approval of therapies, with verification in a postmarketing confirmatory trial. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) slope is a recently validated surrogate end point for chronic kidney disease progression and may be considered as the end point used for verification. We undertook a meta-analysis of clinical trials in IgAN to compare treatment effects on change in proteinuria versus change in estimated GFR (eGFR) slope. STUDY DESIGN: Individual patient-level meta-analysis. SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS: Individual data of 1,037 patients from 12 randomized trials. SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES: Randomized trials of IgAN with proteinuria measurements at baseline and 6 (range, 2.5-14) months and at least a further 1 year of follow-up for the clinical outcome. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: For each trial, we estimated the treatment effects on proteinuria and on the eGFR slope, computed as the total slope starting at baseline or the chronic slope starting 3 months after randomization. We used a Bayesian mixed-effects analysis to relate the treatment effects on proteinuria to effects on GFR slope across these studies and developed a prediction model for the treatment effect on the GFR slope based on the effect on proteinuria. RESULTS: Across all studies, treatment effects on proteinuria accurately predicted treatment effects on the total slope at 3 years (median R2 = 0.88; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.06-1) and on the chronic slope (R2 = 0.98; 95% BCI, 0.29-1). For future trials, an observed treatment effect of approximately 30% reduction in proteinuria would confer probabilities of at least 90% for nonzero treatment benefits on the total and chronic slopes of eGFR. We obtained similar results for proteinuria at 9 and 12 months and total slope at 2 years. LIMITATIONS: Study population restricted to 12 trials of small sample size, leading to wide BCIs. There was heterogeneity among trials with respect to study design and interventions. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide new evidence supporting that early reduction in proteinuria can be used as a surrogate end point for studies of chronic kidney disease progression in IgAN.

Long-Term Longitudinal Stability of Kidney Filtration Marker Measurements: Implications for Epidemiological Studies and Clinical Care.

BACKGROUND: Establishment and improvement of glomerular filtration rate estimating equations requires accurate and precise laboratory measurement procedures (MPs) for filtration markers. The Advanced Research and Diagnostic Laboratory (ARDL) at the University of Minnesota, which has served as the central laboratory for the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration since 2009, has implemented several quality assurance measures to monitor the accuracy and stability of filtration marker assays over time. METHODS: To assess longitudinal stability for filtration marker assays, a 40-sample calibration panel was created using pooled serum, divided into multiple frozen aliquots stored at -80 °C. ARDL monitored 4 markers-creatinine, cystatin C, beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) and beta-trace protein-measuring 15 calibration panel aliquots from 2009 to 2019. Initial target values were established using the mean of the first 3 measurements performed in 2009-10, and differences from target were monitored over time. New MPs for cystatin C and B2M were added in 2012, with target values established using the first measurement. RESULTS: The mean percentage difference from mean target values across time was <2% for all original MPs (-0.59% for creatinine; -0.94% for cystatin C; -0.82% for B2M; 1.24% for beta-trace protein). CONCLUSIONS: Close monitoring of filtration marker trends with a calibration panel at ARDL demonstrates remarkable long-term stability of the MPs. Routine use of a calibration panel for both research studies and clinical care is recommended for filtration markers where longitudinal monitoring is important to detect analytical biases, which can mask or confound true clinical trends in patients.

GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for CKD progression in clinical trials.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There is a paucity of therapies for chronic kidney disease (CKD), in part because of the slow nature of the disease which poses challenges in selection of endpoints in randomized controlled trials (RCT). There is increasing evidence for the use of glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-based endpoints either as percentage decline using time-to-event analyses, or as difference in slope between treatment arms. We reviewed the rationale for using surrogate endpoints and optimal methods for their evaluation prior to their use and evidence for GFR-based endpoints and particularly GFR slope as validated surrogate endpoints and considerations for their use in RCTs. RECENT FINDINGS: In an individual patient meta-analysis of 47 studies (60 620 participants), treatment effects on the clinical endpoint were accurately predicted from treatment effects on 3-year total slope [median R = 0.97 (95% Bayesian confidence interval (BCI), 0.78-1.00] and on the chronic slope [R = 0.96 (95% BCI, 0.63-1.00)]. In a simulation study, GFR slope substantially reduced the required sample size and duration of follow-up compared to the clinical endpoint given high baseline GFR and absence of acute treatment effect. In the presence of acute effect, results were more complicated. SUMMARY: GFR decline is accepted, and GFR slope is being considered, by regulatory authorities as a validated surrogate endpoint for CKD RCTs.

GFR Estimation Using a Panel of Filtration Markers in Shanghai and Beijing.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys) may be less accurate compared to measured GFR (mGFR) in China than in North America, Europe, and Australia due to variation across regions in their non-GFR determinants. The non-GFR determinants of ß2-microglobulin (B2M) and ß-trace protein (BTP) differ from those of creatinine and cystatin C. Thus, the average eGFR using all 4 markers (eGFRavg) could be more accurate than eGFRcr-cys in China. STUDY DESIGN: Diagnostic test study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,066 participants in Shanghai and Beijing with creatinine and cystatin C and 666 participants with all 4 filtration markers. TESTS COMPARED: Index tests were previously developed equations for eGFR using creatinine, cystatin C, B2M, and BTP and combinations. The reference test was mGFR using plasma clearance of iohexol. We compared the performance of eGFRavg to eGFRcr-cys using the proportion of participants with errors in eGFR >30% of mGFR (1 - P30) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the regression of eGFR on mGFR on the logarithmic scale. We also compared classification and reclassification of mGFR categories using eGFRavg compared to eGFRcr-cys. OUTCOMES: Accuracy was significantly better for eGFRavg (1 - P30 of 10.4% and RMSE of 0.214) compared to eGFRcr-cys (1 - P30 of 13.8% and RMSE of 0.232; P = 0.004 and P = 0.006, respectively). However, improvements in accuracy did not generally translate into significant improvement in classification or reclassification of mGFR categories. LIMITATIONS: Study population may not be generalizable to clinical settings other than large urban medical centers in China. CONCLUSIONS: A panel of endogenous filtration markers including B2M and BTP in addition to creatinine and cystatin C may improve GFR estimation in China. Further study is necessary to determine whether GFR estimation using B2M and BTP can be improved and whether these improvements lead to useful clinical applications.

Repeatability and reproducibility of vessel density measurements on optical coherence tomography angiography in diabetic retinopathy.

PURPOSE: Understanding the precision of measurements on and across optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) devices is critical for tracking meaningful change in disease. The purpose of this study is to investigate the repeatability and reproducibility of vessel area density and vessel skeleton density measurements from various commercial OCTA devices in diabetic eyes. METHODS: Patients were imaged three consecutive times each on three different OCTA devices. En face OCTA images of the superficial capillary plexus, deep capillary plexus, and full retinal layer were exported for analysis. Vessel area density and vessel skeleton density were calculated. The coefficient of repeatability (CoR) was calculated to assess the repeatability of these measurements, and linear mixed models were utilized to assess the reproducibility of these measurements. RESULTS: Forty-four eyes from 27 diabetic patients were imaged. Normalized CoR values ranged between 3.44 and 6.65% when calculated for vessel area density and between 1.35 and 23.39% when calculated for vessel skeleton density. When stratified by disease severity, the swept-source OCTA device consistently produced the smallest CoR values for vessel area density in the full retinal layer. Vessel area density measurements were repeatable across the two spectral-domain devices in the full retinal layer when all severities were combined, as well as in diabetic patients without retinopathy, mild nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), and moderate NPDR. CONCLUSION: Vessel area density measured in the full retinal layer may be a more precise measure than vessel skeleton density to follow diabetic retinopathy patients both on the same device and across devices.